How accurate are our snow forecasts?
Every night we freeze that day's 7-day forecast for every resort we track. The next morning we collect what actually fell and score yesterday's predictions at every lead time — every resort, every day, automatically. No cherry-picked storms, no quiet deletions. This page is the result.
Currently scoring 3,273 resorts over a trailing 60-day window, last updated Aug 18, 2026 UTC.
Error by lead time
Average absolute error per forecast day, across resorts that saw snow in the window. Bias is signed: positive means we over-forecast, negative means we under-forecast.
| Forecast | Resorts | Avg. Error | Avg. Bias |
|---|---|---|---|
| Same day | 41 | 0.6in | +0.2in |
| 1 day ahead | 48 | 0.6in | -0.1in |
| 2 days ahead | 50 | 0.6in | -0.1in |
| 3 days ahead | 42 | 0.9in | -0.0in |
| 4 days ahead | 39 | 1.4in | +0.2in |
| 5 days ahead | 38 | 1.1in | +0.1in |
| 6 days ahead | 37 | 1.0in | -0.1in |
By resort
Short-range (1–3 days ahead) forecast error at the snowiest resorts in the window. Resorts appear once they have at least 10 scored days including real snowfall — a dry spell scores a perfect 0.0 that says nothing.
| Resort | Scored Days | Avg. Error | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|
| Centro de Ski Chapa Verde Del Libertador B Ohiggins, Chile | 15 | 2.3in | ran 9% low |
| Valle Hermoso Del Bio-Bio, Chile | 15 | 1.6in | ran 23% low |
| Las Leñas Mendoza, Argentina | 15 | 2.5in | ran 20% low |
| Antuco Del Bio-Bio, Chile | 15 | 1.2in | ran 30% low |
| Corralco De La Araucania, Chile | 15 | 1.7in | ran 48% low |
| Caviahue Neuquen, Argentina | 15 | 1.0in | ran 29% low |
| Los Penitentes Mendoza, Argentina | 15 | 0.8in | within 5% overall |
| Las Araucarias De La Araucania, Chile | 15 | 1.0in | ran 33% low |
| Valle Nevado Metropolitana, Chile | 15 | 1.1in | ran 34% high |
| La Parva Metropolitana, Chile | 15 | 1.1in | ran 34% high |
| El Colorado Metropolitana, Chile | 15 | 1.1in | ran 34% high |
| Los Puquios Mendoza, Argentina | 15 | 0.7in | within 5% overall |
| Farellones Metropolitana, Chile | 15 | 0.9in | ran 35% high |
| Chapelco Ski Resort Neuquen, Argentina | 15 | 0.8in | ran 31% low |
| Lagunillas Metropolitana, Chile | 15 | 0.9in | ran 34% high |
| Cerro Perito Moreno Rio Negro, Argentina | 15 | 0.5in | ran 18% low |
| Parque de Nieve Batea Mahuida Neuquen, Argentina | 15 | 0.8in | ran 34% low |
| Cerro Bayo Neuquen, Argentina | 15 | 0.7in | ran 36% low |
| Portillo De Valparaiso, Chile | 15 | 0.9in | ran 38% high |
| Cerro Catedral Rio Negro, Argentina | 15 | 0.5in | ran 21% low |
| Complejo Turístico Teleférico Cerro Otto Rio Negro, Argentina | 15 | 0.5in | ran 21% low |
| Piedras Blancas Rio Negro, Argentina | 15 | 0.5in | ran 22% low |
| Centro Ski Pucón De La Araucania, Chile | 15 | 0.7in | ran 32% low |
| La Hoya Chubut, Argentina | 15 | 0.5in | ran 21% low |
| Estación Esquí Antillanca De Los Lagos, Chile | 15 | 0.5in | ran 20% low |
Why we stop at 7 days
Some sites publish 14- or 15-day snow forecasts. We don't, because forecast error grows with lead time — you can watch it happen in our own table above. Beyond a week, a snowfall total is closer to a coin flip than a forecast, and publishing one would just be marketing dressed as meteorology. Seven days is where a forecast is still worth planning around.
How the scoring works
At the first forecast refresh after 00:00 UTC each day we snapshot the predicted snowfall for each of the next 7 days at every resort. Each night we collect measured snowfall at summit elevation and compute, per resort and per lead day, the average absolute error (how far off we were, regardless of direction) and the bias (whether we run high or low) over the trailing 60 days. Forecasts and measurements both come from the same elevation point, so the comparison is apples to apples.
See what the forecast says for your mountain: